Attendees at ESA’s international ‘Fire from Space’ Workshop, at European Centre for Space Applications and Telecommunications (ECSAT), Harwell, Oxfordshire, UK, 21-22 July 2025. Credit ESA.

Importance of uncertainty in satellite fire observations highlighted at ESA workshop

8 August 2025 by Tim Watt, NPL

#Xfires # Sense4Fire # FUELITY # EUBurn # State of Wildfire # ESA # Harwell # Fire from Space #ECSAT

At ESA’s Fire from Space workshop, the FRM4Fire project showcased how assessing and propagating uncertainty in satellite fire data can improve reliability and confidence in wildfire monitoring. With ESA backing, this approach is shaping future standards for fire science.

the recent European Space Agency (ESA) Fire from Space workshop, project technical leader Bernardo Mota presented details of the FRM4Fire objectives and methods being used to generate independent airborne reference data for validating satellite fire observations.

Projects highlighted from across the ESA fire research community

Experts invited by ESA from across the fire research community discussed advances in satellite-based wildfire monitoring methods and developments in projects that also included Fire CCI, Xfires, Sense4Fire, FUELITY, EUBurn, and State of Wildfire .

Attendees at ESA’s international ‘Fire from Space’ Workshop, at the European Centre for Space Applications and Telecommunications (ECSAT), Harwell, Oxfordshire, UK, 21–22 July 2025. Credit: ESA.

Setting the scene for future missions

Wildfires affect both air quality and climate, and satellite observations are an essential tool to help understand their behaviour and impacts. With new satellite missions on the horizon, the workshop provided a timely opportunity to align research priorities and foster collaboration across projects.

Assessing and propagating uncertainties

In his presentation, Bernardo reviewed the linked airborne field campaign in Canada in 2024 and previewed some results of ongoing lab-based characterisations of the instruments used. He emphasised the importance of applying protocols consistent with the Fiducial Reference Measurements (FRM) standard to ensure data reliability.

The project aims to demonstrate that assessing and propagating uncertainties can strengthen both primary fire products and downstream applications — by identifying areas for improvement and increasing confidence in results.

"We expect that FRM4Fire will highlight the importance of maintaining uncertainty-aware data and results. This approach is fully endorsed by ESA, and my strong impression is that ESA will expect presenters at events like this in future to identify the limitations and uncertainties of their data and results."

Bernardo Mota, NPL (FRM4Fire Technical lead)

For more, see ESA’s story: Fire science and satellites in focus at ESA workshop .